Humans

Reassessing Reported Deaths and Estimated Infection Attack Rate during the First 6 Months of the COVID-19 Epidemic, Delhi, India

India reported textgreater10 million coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and 149,000 deaths in 2020. To reassess reported deaths and estimate incidence rates during the first 6 months of the epidemic, we used a severe acute respiratory syndrome …

Household Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and Plasmodium ovale in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2013-2014

In a cross-sectional molecular study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 78% of households had ≥1 member infected with Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and/or Plasmodium ovale spp.; 47% of children and 33% of adults tested positive for …

Modelling intensive care unit capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three Western European countries

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed enormous strain on intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe. Ensuring access to care, irrespective of COVID-19 status, in winter 2020-2021 is essential. METHODS: An integrated model …

The epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax among adults in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Reports of P. vivax infections among Duffy-negative hosts have accumulated throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this growing body of evidence, no nationally representative epidemiological surveys of P. vivax in sub-Saharan Africa have been …

The Burden of Malaria in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Despite evidence that older children and adolescents bear the highest burden of malaria, large malaria surveys focus on younger children. We used polymerase chain reaction data from the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey in the Democratic …

Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

BACKGROUND: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, …

Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis

The worldwide endeavour to develop safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines has been extraordinary, and vaccination is now underway in many countries. However, the doses available in 2021 are likely to be limited. We extend a mathematical model of …

Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed …

Under the Radar: Epidemiology of Plasmodium ovale in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium ovale is an understudied malaria species prevalent throughout much of sub-Saharan Africa. Little is known about the distribution of ovale malaria and risk factors for infection in areas of high malaria endemicity. METHODS: …

Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important …